Asymmetrica Research

macro notes, against the current
DXY 100.85UST10Y 4.45%5s10s +23bpVIX 18.44MOVE 69.36Gold $4,173WTI $76.54S&P 500 7,420

Track Record

Public registry of all trade ideas surfaced on this site. Each idea links back to the analytical note that motivated it. P&L is marked-to-market every 30 minutes for liquid instruments.

Total ideas
2
Open
1
Closed
1
Hit rate
0%
Avg win
+0.00%
Avg loss
+0.00%
Cumulative
+0.00%

Open positions

InstrumentThesisEntry zoneTarget zoneInvalidationSpotChartP&LOpened / Horizon
AUD/USD
short
Cross-currency basis at March 2020 levels + no Fed swap lines = AUD/USD exposure to sustained USD funding stress
Cross-Currency Basis At March 2020 Levels; No Swap Lines, No Consensus
0.6420–0.65100.6080–0.62000.66800.7016-8.52%03 May 2026
90d

Closed positions

InstrumentThesisEntry zoneTarget zoneInvalidationSpotChartP&LOpened / Horizon
USD/JPY
long
Asian-session USD basis at March 2020 levels signals structural dollar funding stress; long basis from USD-payer perspective captures the asymmetric compression trade.
Dollar Repo Stress in Asian Hours: Consensus Shrugs, Tape Reads Otherwise
-0.5500–-0.4000-0.2000–0.0000-0.2500161.27500.00%04 May 2026
180d

Methodology note: Trade ideas are hypothetical structures expressing analytical theses, not investment recommendations. P&L is marked-to-market against the entry zone midpoint at endorsement time. Closed positions are marked at the exit price recorded by the cron at status transition. See /methodology for the full editorial process.

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